F O R E C A S T S

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1 9 9 8

 
SPX

26 MAR

Daily Close at 1100 

Noted in private correspondence:

"Penultimate top at 1200 followed by a drop to 1000 by September"

04 APR

Daily Close at 1123 

Sent another fax refining the forecast:

"Current 5th wave will only reach 1180.  At that point we will see the sharp downmove back to at least 1031 and at most 913.  When it is done the FINAL big upswing (in five parts) will begin."

20 JUL

Intraday High at 1190

Peak achieved only 10 points above cited target at 1180.
08 OCT

Intraday Low at 923

Trough achieved only 10 points above cited target at 913.

The double bottoms on 31AUG and 08OCT perfectly bracketed the September period cited for completion of the correction.
Subsequent action to new highs confirmed the expectation that 1998 would not mark the final top.

 


USDJPY

31 MAY

Daily Close at 139.00 

Conveyed expectations in private correspondence: 

"Spot USDJPY will continue to move higher, taking out one target after another in a steady climb"

Over the next two weeks it rose sharply to 146.75.

15 JUN

Daily Close at 146.00 

Sent message:

"Everything points to a critical top very nearby in price and time. ... A very deep correction is indicated !"

16 JUN

Intraday High at 146.75

Peak achieved and, as expected, USDJPY promptly collapsed 9% in just four sessions.

19 JUN

Intraday Low at 133.75

Market then consolidated in a triangular pattern for a month before resuming upward trend.

02 AUG

Daily Close at 144.50

"Every oscillator and trend indicator for every period from monthly on down is flagging a very ominous triple bearish divergence. ... Expect the next big move to be back to 126 and then 108 over the next few months."

In conversations with other professional currency traders, made the bold prediction that USDJPY would dramatically collapse before touching 150.

11 AUG

Intraday High at 147.50

Over the next 5 months USDJPY melted down exactly as anticipated
08 JAN

Intraday Low at 108.25

Despite the large magnitude (26%) of the expected move from extreme high to extreme low, the cited target at 108 was astonishingly accurate.

 

 

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