| 21
MAR |
Daily Close
at 4449 |
Commented
in post prior to departing for 3-weeks travel:
"ATH top in NDX
will take place while I'm away!"
ATH Intraday extreme
achieved on 24MAR at 4816 |
| 04
APR |
Intraday Low
at 3525 |
Collapse
accelerated to -27%, almost at first target cited at 3400. |
| 12
APR |
Daily Close
at 3633 |
Posted
new assessment:
"The
sharp drop from 4816 to 3525 was an impulsive first leg in a
zigzag ... The rally back to 4308 last Friday was a perfect 61% Fibonacci
B-wave. ... Wave C of (4) down has already begun. Termination
at 3388-3418 will complete the sequence of margin-player and
weak-company cleansing, with the 3000-level possible."
Over the next several
days NDX dropped straight down to an Intraday Low at 3138
on 14APR. |
| 16
APR |
Daily Close
at 3208 |
Posted
weekend warning:
"The
morning of Tuesday April 18 could mark a significant inflection point. ...
rally above 3525 will confirm zigzag collapse is a sharp
Wave (4) only."
Also cautioned about next
eventuality:
"... capitulation
to 3017 (where A=C) or maybe even 2900" |
| 18
APR |
Daily Close
at 3715 |
Posted
view on the recovery from 3107
extreme low on
17APR:
"At +20% it
is now substantial and almost the same size as the 22% correction
off the lows of April 4th, [but] much more clearly impulsive, with
smooth acceleration and wave proportionality. Impulsiveness,
however, does not imply that Wave (5) has begun. This could easily
turn out to be only the first leg of a flat consolidation pattern prior to
a capitulation downswing of the larger Wave (4) zigzag to reach either a
double bottom at 3100 or a lower trough at 2900-3000." |
| 26
APR |
Daily Close
at 3505 |
Posted
short-term forecast:
"High probability
now of reaching 3850. ... Failure to break above indicates
termination of part (b) of C of zigzag (4), with return down to 2950
to complete C of (4)."
Over the next
three days NDX rallied up to intra-day peak at 3872
and then resumed downtrend. |
| 06
MAY |
Daily Close
at 3688 |
"A
close below 3400 would confirm a high probability of reaching 3000"
... A
move now to 3000 has a very high probability of marking
completion of the entire zigzag (4), and thereby launching Wave (5) up"
|
| 14
MAY |
Daily Close
at 3406 |
"The case for
termination of the downswing since March 24th at a trough around 3000 (+/-
50 points) [is based on] ... combination of Fibonacci
retracement levels and Trendline supports providing strong focus ...
[and] timing factors and momentum divergences signalling key reversal." |
| 15
MAY |
Daily Close
at 3512 |
Posted
complete NDX Long-Term wavecount amended to a system consistent with
SPX
Cycle III. Concluded:
"Expect
a key reversal from major support at 3000" |
| 21
MAY |
Daily Close
at 3260 |
Posted
comprehensive outlook for US assets:
"3000 (+/-
50 points) within 10 trading days" |
| 23
MAY |
Daily Close
at 3023 |
Lowest
Close before key reversal, right in heart of cited target zone. |
| 24
MAY |
Intraday Low
at 2898 |
Right
at lower edge of cited target zone. Total decline since 24MAR at -40%.
Over next few weeks NDX rallied
substantially from the anticipated reversal. |
| 11
JUN |
Daily Close
at 3760 |
"The
sensible trading strategy is to wait for a cheaper entry point at 3600
... before wave (v) rises to 4000."
The
market dipped straight to 3583
and then rallied to 3990
over the next week. |
| 01
SEP |
Intraday
High at 4147 |
Total
advance achieved since 24MAY at +43%. |