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NDX

Summary across 12 public posts on the Longwaves Forum. 
 Includes correct anticipation one month in advance of the collapse off the 24MAR peak, accurate forecast during April and May of the eventual trough on 24MAY, and effective projections after the key reversal.

  [Note: Subsequent to this series of posts, the prevailing wavecount was revised in the SEP00 Monthly Report to classify the retreat since MAR00 as Primary 4.]

 
26 FEB

Daily Close at 4178

Posted longterm wavecount for NDX based on data since inception in 1985.  Concluded that a correction was:

"imminent [and] must be very Sharp, to alternate from the long Flat consolidation between February and June 1999.  The downside target range is 3400 to 2800."

Over the next few weeks NDX continued to rally with increasing choppiness in an ending diagonal.

21 MAR

Daily Close at 4449

Commented in post prior to departing for 3-weeks travel:

"ATH top in NDX will take place while I'm away!"

ATH Intraday extreme achieved on 24MAR at 4816

04 APR

Intraday Low at 3525

Collapse accelerated to -27%, almost at first target cited at 3400.
12 APR

Daily Close at 3633

Posted new assessment:

"The sharp drop from 4816 to 3525 was an impulsive first leg in a zigzag ... The rally back to 4308 last Friday was a perfect 61% Fibonacci B-wave. ... Wave C of (4) down has already begun.  Termination at 3388-3418 will complete the sequence of margin-player and weak-company cleansing, with the 3000-level possible."

Over the next several days NDX dropped straight down to an Intraday Low at 3138 on 14APR.

16 APR

Daily Close at 3208

Posted weekend warning:

"The morning of Tuesday April 18 could mark a significant inflection point. ... rally above 3525 will confirm zigzag collapse is a sharp Wave (4) only."

Also cautioned about next eventuality: 

"... capitulation to 3017 (where A=C) or maybe even 2900"

18 APR

Daily Close at 3715

Posted view on the recovery from 3107 extreme low on 17APR:

"At +20% it is now substantial and almost the same size as the 22% correction off the lows of April 4th, [but] much more clearly impulsive, with smooth acceleration and wave proportionality.  Impulsiveness, however, does not imply that Wave (5) has begun.  This could easily turn out to be only the first leg of a flat consolidation pattern prior to a capitulation downswing of the larger Wave (4) zigzag to reach either a double bottom at 3100 or a lower trough at 2900-3000."

26 APR

Daily Close at 3505

Posted short-term forecast:

"High probability now of reaching 3850. ... Failure to break above indicates termination of part (b) of C of zigzag (4), with return down to 2950 to complete C of (4)."

Over the next three days NDX rallied up to intra-day peak at 3872 and then resumed downtrend.

06 MAY

Daily Close at 3688

"A close below 3400 would confirm a high probability of reaching 3000" ... A move now to 3000 has a very high probability of marking completion of the entire zigzag (4), and thereby launching Wave (5) up"

14 MAY

Daily Close at 3406

"The case for termination of the downswing since March 24th at a trough around 3000 (+/- 50 points) [is based on] ... combination of Fibonacci retracement levels and Trendline supports providing strong focus ... [and] timing factors and momentum divergences signalling key reversal."

15 MAY

Daily Close at 3512

Posted complete NDX Long-Term wavecount amended to a system consistent with SPX Cycle III. Concluded:

"Expect a key reversal from major support at 3000"

21 MAY

Daily Close at 3260

Posted comprehensive outlook for US assets:

"3000 (+/- 50 points) within 10 trading days"

23 MAY

Daily Close at 3023

Lowest Close before key reversal, right in heart of cited target zone.
24 MAY

Intraday Low at 2898

Right at lower edge of cited target zone.  Total decline since 24MAR at -40%.  Over next few weeks NDX rallied substantially from the anticipated reversal.
11 JUN

Daily Close at 3760

"The sensible trading strategy is to wait for a cheaper entry point at 3600  ... before wave (v) rises to 4000."

The market dipped straight to 3583 and then rallied to 3990 over the next week.

01 SEP

Intraday High at 4147

Total advance achieved since 24MAY at +43%.

 

 

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