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F O R E
C A S T S |
Dynamic
Balance |
2003
This
section presents a Review of the third year (MAR03-MAR04)
of the Dynamic Balance Weekly Reports, including Highlights
from each of the four asset classes covered regularly: equities,
exchange rates, interest rates, and commodities.
These
Highlights illustrate accuracy on short- and medium-term projections
of price, direction, and timing.
They are not meant to be an exhaustive listing of every forecast,
expectation, or contingent scenario presented in the Reports. Of
the numerous other forecasts not included here many were also successful
in terms of achieving their price, direction, or timing objectives.
Of
course, no one is perfect and the Weekly series also included
some forecasts that did not meet their anticipated targets. [One
notable dud included below was the call for a trough at SPX 710 on
10JUL.]
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SPX
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First Quarter
Forecast:
Report #89 on
02DEC specified "a
peak at 955"
and then large "slide
to the main objective at 629."
Outcome:
Market peaked at 954
-- right at the cited resistance -- and then
delivered exactly half the anticipated decline, dropping 165
points to a Low at 789 on 12MAR.
Second Quarter
Forecast:
Price/Time
junctures at 896 (21MAR), 905 (07APR), 949
(16MAY), and 1008 (06JUN) were anticipated or identified in real-time as offering
notable resistance.
Report #113
on 19MAY introduced a unique Price/Time symmetry
for 710 on 10JUL.
Outcome:
Market delivered
profitable short-term declines of 35-53 points from all of
the specified levels, but the main uptrend ultimately continued.
The particular call
for 710 on 10JUL was wrong.
Third Quarter
Forecast:
During July,
shifted to the view that the pullback was corrective only.
Report #124
on 04AUG highlighted support at 962 and
made a detailed case for a subsequent new High at 1037.
Outcome:
The trough on 06AUG at 961
precisely
fulfilled the 962 cited target, and then rallied to achieve the 1037 key objective on 18SEP
with only a slight stretch the next morning to 1040.
The market then
collapsed 50 points directly to the 990 support
specifically highlighted in Report #131 on 22SEP.
Intraday Home
Run:
Forecast:
Report #132
on 29SEP called for: "A
slight dip to 994, a small pop to 1005, and then a
slide to finish the day at 991. This notable
support should hold in favour of a bounce to 1021 on
Wednesday."
Outcome:
The market
adhered extremely well to the script -- tagging in
sequence 995,1007, 990, and then 1021
early Thursday for a quadruple play exactly
fulfilling the cited price targets just slightly behind schedule.
Fourth Quarter
Forecast:
Report #132
on 29SEP continued with the caution that "an
upside break of 1021 would signal an extension to 1068."
Report #144 on
22DEC highlighted "a
very significant inflection point at 1091"
and cautioned that "exceeding
1092 would signal further strength to 1161."
Outcome:
The upside extension reached the
1068 target on 01DEC, but rolled directly on to the 1091
inflection point on 19DEC.
Although not the
preferred scenario, surpassing 1092 invoked the case for 1161
and the market indeed advanced all the way to a High on 05MAR
at 1163.
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EURUSD
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Forecast:
Report #92
on 23DEC02 projected that "the
trend remains strongly Up", with
reports throughout the year highlighting 1.2350 as the
objective.
Report #141
on 01DEC03 projected "further
immediate gains with a target of 1.2900 by the end of
January."
Outcome:
Spot EURUSD gained
26% from 1.0200 to the High on 12JAN at 1.2900
-- halting precisely at the cited resistance.
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GOLD
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Forecast:
Report #108
on 07APR stated that "gold
is poised for immediate resumption of the uptrend [targeting] 403
enroute to eventual major objective at 478."
Outcome:
Spot Gold rallied 35%
directly from 320 to the High
on 06JAN at 431.
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BOND
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Forecast:
Report #112
on 12MAY summarised my bullish stance since the start of
the year, specifying a target at "125
in early July to complete the overall recovery since JAN00."
Outcome:
USM3 rose 15%
from 108 in January to 124 in June
-- very nearly tagging the 125 target on
schedule. The market then collapsed very sharply to a Low
at 102 [basis USU3] in August. It has
since recovered in a choppy corrective manoeuvre to a High
thus far at 113-22 on 16JAN enroute to "an
important inflection point at 115-23."
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Past
performance is not a guarantee of future performance
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only and must not be construed by any visitor as investment or trading advice.
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limited by Australian legislation to the provision of general advice to
wholesale clients only.
Please read the full Terms
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2008
Polar Pacific Pty Ltd