F O R E C A S T S

Dynamic Balance

2 0 0 4

SPX

First Half

Forecast: 

          Website article on 18DEC03 cautioned that "exceeding 1092 now would signal
          further strength to 1161 on 18JAN."

Outcome:

          Market reached high at 1155 on 26JAN with slight stretch to 1163 on 05MAR.  It
          then oscillated sideways for five months with maximum decline of 102 points.

Second Half

Forecast: 

          New article on 31JUL and posts on public forums in early AUG highlighted
          remarkable Price-Time symmetry for 1061 on 13AUG.  

          [Wave 4 related perfectly to Wave 2 by ratio of .618 in Price (-102/-165 points)
          and 1.618 in Time (161 / 100 days).]

When market tagged precisely this juncture, posted 30-min chart with bold declaration that "Wave 4 Finished at 1061 on 13AUG !"

Projection from 31JUL called for +20% rally to 1260 to complete overall corrective phase since 24JUL02.

Outcome:

          Market delivered powerful surge from the highlighted juncture at 1061 on 13AUG,
          and as of 1207 high on 15DEC has already covered 146 of 199 points to 1260.

          Along the way, public posts also correctly called smaller-scale tops and bottoms.

For example, a post on 23OCT highlighted support at 1092, projecting "an immediate upside reversal" and that "post-election buying should power +76 points in wave 3 of (iii) to 1189".

         Market surged 100 points from 25OCT low at 1090 to 17NOV high at
         precisely 1189 !  

GBPUSD

First Quarter

Forecast: 

         The website article for GBPUSD on 08SEP03 forecast an upside breakout of major
         downward channel over past century.  

Outcome:

         Market delivered a +22% gain over next 6 months from 1.56 to 1.92 on 18FEB04.

Second Quarter

Forecast: 

          After initial pullback to 1.75 on 14MAY and bounce to 1.88 on 19JUL, website 
          was updated next day on 20JUL and called for immediate decline to 1.71 followed
          by resumption of main uptrend to key cyclical high projected for AUG05.

Outcome:

         Market fell directly from 1.88 to retest 1.75 on 07SEP. However, it did not stretch the
         last few cents to 1.71 and instead tagged a rising trendline to resume the anticipated
         uptrend with a surge to 1.95 on 03DEC.

AUDUSD

First Quarter

Forecast: 

          In a series of discussions with professional traders at large local banks in late
          FEB / early MAR, called for a drop from the 18FEB peak at .8000 to .7250.

 Outcome:

Market fell directly to low at precisely .7250 on 12MAR.

Second Quarter

Forecast: 

          Presentation on 15MAR called for 5-figure bounce followed by 8-figure drop to .7000.

Outcome:

          Market adhered well to the script with a 4-figure bounce followed by a 9-figure drop
          to .6800 on 18MAY.

Guest Speaker at 
Australian Technical Analysts Association

15MAR04 

Presentation on 
Large-Scale Techniques:

 

GBPUSD:     Time  (vertical axis)        --  historical 100-month cycle discovery

USDJPY:      Price  (horizontal axis)    --  historical impulse movements

AUDUSD:     Symmetry  (diagonal)      --  channels and proportions