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F O R E
C A S T S |
PolarView |
The PolarView Monthly Analysis had an excellent first year,
with great calls across the spectrum of equity, currency,
commodity, and interest rate markets
regularly covered on a rotating basis.
The
examples below illustrate the high degree of accuracy on short- and
medium-term projections for price, direction,
and timing. They are not meant to be an
exhaustive listing of every forecast, expectation, or contingent
scenario presented in the Reports, and some of those not included in
this brief review were also successful. But
of course no one is perfect, and some
forecasts did not meet anticipated targets.
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EQUITIES
CURRENCIES
COMMODITIES
INTEREST
RATES
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EQUITIES
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SPX
Large
Scale
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Forecast:
Maintained bullish expectation throughout the year to reach 1260
main objective
since public
call in AUG04 for +200 point rally from
1060.
Outcome:
Market approached the 1260
price target several times with highs at
1220 in JAN,
1230 in
MAR,
and 1245
in AUG. Objective achieved with the high at
1275 in DEC.
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SPX
Medium
Scale
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Forecast:
In AUG projected
an immediate 60-point drop, and in OCT ( (special
update) called for a
sharp 80-point
rally.
Outcome:
Market delivered in both cases, with a 54-point slide between
03-29AUG, and a
108-point surge
between 13OCT-14DEC.
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NDX
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Forecast:
On 27APR
made public call for
important low at 1395.
Outcome:
Market printed low that day at 1394 and then rose
26% to
1761
on 11JAN.
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CURRENCIES
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USDJPY
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Forecast:
In
JUN called for rally from 107 to
122
Outcome:
Market
delivered with 14% gain from
107 on 07JUN to
121
on 05DEC.
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EURUSD
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Forecast:
In FEB called for
7.5% rally from
1.30
to 1.40 in MAR
followed by 15% decline
to 1.18 in DEC. In OCT refined the
price target to 1.16.
Outcome:
Market
delivered with 6%
rally from 1.27 to
1.35
in MAR,
and then 14% decline
to a low at 1.16
in NOV.
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COMMODITIES
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OIL
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Forecast:
In
MAR called for 15%
pullback from
54 to
45
followed by a strong advance, and
then in JUL
called for 25%
rally from 56
to 70.
Outcome:
Market
delivered a 20%
drop from 58 to
47
in MAY
followed by a 30%
gain to 61 in
JUN.
It then delivered again with the 25%
rally from 56 in
JUL to 71 in AUG.
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GOLD
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Forecast:
In JUL called for
DEC Futures to dip to 427
and then rally to
482
in SEP.
Outcome:
Market
delivered 14% rally from
425
low on 15JUL to
483
high on 12OCT.
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INTEREST
RATES
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30-Year
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Forecast:
In
APR called for Futures to reach an intermediate peak at 125
during 2005.
Outcome:
Market
took just two months to rally from 111 on 08APR to
120
on 03JUN
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3-Month
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Forecast:
In APR called
for the Front Futures to fall 125
bp from 96.75 to
95.50
by the end of the year.
Outcome:
Market
delivered both the size and timing perfectly with a high for EDM5 at
96.68
on 18APR
and a low for EDZ5 at 95.48 on 15DEC !
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Copyright
2007 Polar Pacific Pty
Ltd
Past
performance is not a guarantee of future performance
All material relating to financial markets is provided for academic purposes
only and must not be construed by any visitor as investment or trading advice.
From 2004 all services relating to financial products are
limited by Australian legislation to the provision of general advice to
wholesale clients only.
Please read the full Terms
and Conditions
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