F O R E C A S T S

PolarView

 

 

2 0 0 7

 

 


The PolarView Monthly Analysis had an outstanding third year, with prescient calls across the spectrum of equity, currency, commodity, and interest rate markets covered on a rotating basis.

The examples below illustrate the high degree of accuracy on short- and medium-term projections for price, direction, and timing.  They are not an exhaustive list of every forecast, expectation, or contingent scenario presented in the Reports, and some of those not included in this brief review were also very successful. But of course no one is perfect, and some forecasts did not materialise. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EQUITIES

SPX

  

Large moves in Q1/Q3/Q4 adhered very well to explicit price + time expectations. 

Choppiness in Q2 did not match the preferred scenario but nicely delivered some smaller swings as per specified alternatives. 

 
Q1

 

Forecast: 

          Report #25 on 01JAN forecast "a net gain over the whole year of +10% to 1550".

Outcome:

          This main objective was achieved ahead of schedule with a high on 16JUL at 1556.

 

Forecast: 

          Report #26 on 01FEB emphasised that "for SP futures, key resistance is at 1464" 

Outcome:

          The front contract peaked on 22FEB at precisely 1464.50 and promptly fell 96 points.
Q2

 

Forecast: 

          Report #28 on 01APR cautioned that failure to make "a quick downside break of 1420 would
          invoke an upside acceleration to next resistance at 1480".

Outcome:

          The market jumped 50 points from 1430 to reach 1480 on 17APR.

 

Forecast: 

          Report #29 on 01MAY called for "a peak on 07MAY between 1508-1518 and then 11% slide".

Outcome:

          The market rose to a high on 09MAY at 1518  --  halting right at the anticipated price/time
          juncture  --  but then fell back only modestly.

 
Q3

 

Forecast: 

          Report #31 on 01JUL called for "selling pressure measuring 100 points to 1442 during JUL".

Outcome:

          The market delivered this move over 12 sessions in JUL with 113 points from 1556 to 1443.

 

Forecast: 

          Report #32 on 01AUG emphasised "notable support during AUG in the 1374-1361 zone".

Outcome:

          The market fell 9% between 8-16AUG to a cash low at 1370  --  right at the cited support  --  and
          then rose 16%.

 

Q4

 

Forecast: 

          Report #34 on 01OCT highlighted a "significant price/time inflection point at 1578 on 08OCT" and
          310-point drop to 1268 over 12 weeks.

Outcome:

          The market delivered a daily closing high for the front futures at 1576 on 09OCT and intraday high
           for the cash index at 1576 on 11OCT.  It then fell 20% over the next 15 weeks to reach the cited
           target on 21JAN.

 

Forecast: 

          Report #36 on 01DEC projected "a 10% slide over next 4 weeks, with interim support near 1450".

Outcome:

          The market fell 5% to a low at 1446 on 18DEC, covering half the total distance during the first half
          of the period.

 
   

 

 

CURRENCIES

EURUSD

   

Forecast: 

          In JUN projected "a 15% gain from 1.33 to 1.53 during 2007" 

Outcome:

          Market delivered a 13% gain from 1.33 to 1.50 on schedule between JUN-NOV.

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD

 

Forecast: 

In MAR called for "support at 637 to power a 15% climb to 730 on 14APR".  

Outcome:

          Market printed a low on 06MAR at 635 and then climbed 10% to 698 on 20APR. 

 

 

 

INTEREST RATES

30-Year

   

Forecast: 

          In APR called for "slide to 110, a bounce to 112, and then collapse to 101".  

Outcome:

          Market delivered this triple play  --  falling to a low on 13APR at precisely 110-00,
          bouncing to a high on 08MAY at 112-08, and then falling sharply to a low on 13JUN
          at 104-25.

 

 


Speaking Engagements

Keynote

Hong Kong

   

Forecast:

On 15MAR reiterated bold call for OIL to reach 100 in 2007.

Outcome:

OIL achieved the key target, rising 100% from 50 to 100 between JAN-DEC.

Seminar

Sydney

   

Forecast:

On 02MAY called for AUDJPY to peak at 102 and then collapse 18% to 84.

Outcome:

AUDJPY reached the 102 target in early JUN and stretched to 107 in early JUL before collapsing 20% to 86.

 

Conference

Idaho

   

Forecast:

On 20SEP emphasised that corrective low for SILVER from AUG at 11 (front futures) was in place and resumption of main uptrend was now underway. 

Outcome:

SILVER gained 50% over next four months.

 

Presentation

Singapore

   

Forecast:

On 15OCT called for STI to immediately drop 15% from 3900 to 3300.

Outcome:

Singapore STI delivered this perfectly with 15% collapse from 3906 to 3306 over 6 weeks to 22NOV.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright 2007  Polar Pacific Pty Ltd

 

 

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