F O R E C A S T S

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EQUITIES

SPX

Large swings in every quarter adhered very well to explicit price + time forecasts. 

Forecast: 

          Report #37 on 01JAN forecast "another 10% decline in value to 1275" to complete the main
          expectation since Report #34 for "a 20% decline from 1578 to 1268 over 12 weeks from 08OCT"

Outcome:

          Key price objective achieved with low at 1270 on 21JAN.  This also fulfilled the larger projection
          of -310 points from 1578 over 12 weeks with actual -306 points from 1576 over 14 weeks.

Forecast: 

          Report #38 on 01FEB called for the bounce to fail and a "slide to 1230 in the week of 19MAR" 

Outcome:

          The anticipated retest materialised exactly on schedule with the low at 1256 on 17MAR.

Forecast: 

          Report #40 on 01APR projected the recovery could reach price and time resistance as far as
          "1420" and "02MAY", and forecast "another significant downleg of -16% to 1185 on 01JUL"
          representing -235 points over 60 days.

Outcome:

          The market delivered the combination of 1422 on 02MAY, and also achieved the anticipated
          magnitude and duration of decline with -16% from 1440 to 1200 between 19MAY-15JUL  --  ie.
          fulfilling the projected -235 points over 60 days with actual -240 points over 57 days.

Forecast: 

          Report #42 on 01JUN predicted "a 10% decline in value from 1410 to reach 1270 by the first
          week of JUL".

Outcome:

          The market delivered the magnitude and both ends of the forecast perfectly, with the futures
          printing a high at 1410 on 06JUN and low at 1273 on 27JUN.

Forecast: 

          Report #43 on 01JUL forecast "a bounce to reach 1310 on 11AUG" followed by "a slide to 1170
          in the week ending 03OCT"

Outcome:

          The price/time junctures specified at both ends up to three months in advance materialised
          perfectly, with the actual high at 1313 on 11AUG and drop to monthly close at 1166 on 30SEP.

Forecast: 

          Report #45 on 01SEP projected "interim support at 1200 on 12SEP" enroute to completing the
          larger expectation of a "150-point slide" highlighted in Report #44 from 01AUG. 

Outcome:

          The market delivered the interim juncture of 1200 on Friday 12SEP with the futures printing an
          intraday low the next session at 1196 on Monday 15SEP. The larger anticipated movement of
          -150 points was also fulfilled with -151 on the futures from 1314 on 11AUG to 1163 on 16SEP. 

Forecast: 

          Report #46 on 01OCT proclaimed that "the market is poised for a capitulative collapse on
          Monday 06OCT ... with key target at 1061 ... and next support at 975".

          The special update on 15OCT highlighted that "from the 14OCT futures high at 1067, the market
          has potential to fall 25% to a powerful trough at 800...with the next notable support level at 730." 

Outcome:

          The market fell after 03OCT as contemporaneously expected, quickly reaching the first target at
          1061, and then also the next cited level at 975 where it hovered for several days.  Unprecedented
          volatility and forced liquidation of global assets then triggered a dramatic 2-day push to the next
          step down at 840 before a surge right back to the familiar key inflection point at 1061 (futures).  

          The market ultimately delivered the stated collapse from 1067 to the specified price objectives,
          reaching a weekly closing low at exactly 800 and intraday extreme at 740 both on 21NOV ...
          although it took an extra month to get there.

Forecast:  

          Report #47 on 01NOV projected an immediate "10% gain to reach 1060" and then "relapse in the
          first quarter to a new low at 800" representing a 260-point decline.  

Outcome:

          The market delivered an initial jump of 5% to 1008 and then collapsed, exactly fulfilling the
          anticipated magnitude of decline with actual -268 points from 1008 to 740 versus projection of
          -260 points from 1060 to 800 (ie. downshifted 60 points at each end). Timewise, the slide was
          compressed to less than a month. 

CURRENCIES

          Forecast: 

                    Report #38 on 01FEB projected "a drop to 97 in the first quarter, oscillation back to 103,
                    and then collapse to 69 over the following year." 

          Outcome:

                    The market delivered the first step perfectly, with the 9% drop from 106 reaching 96 on
                    17MAR.  It then recovered as anticipated, reaching the 103 target and hovering nearby
                    throughout MAY.  However, it then pushed up choppily by an extra 7% to reach a high at
                    110 on 15AUG before the projected collapse took control  --  falling 21% to a low thus far
                    at 87 on 17DEC.

USDCAD

Forecast: 

          Report #42 on 01JUN projected "an 8% climb from 0.99 to reach 1.07 on 08AUG." 

Outcome:

          Market rose 8% from 0.99 in JUN to reach 1.07 on 08AUG  -- precisely fulfilling the
          price and time objectives.

COMMODITIES

GOLD

 

Forecast: 

In Report #43 on 01JUL projected "25% drop from resistance at 975 to support at 732 in APR09."  

Outcome:

          The market delivered the anticipated slide of -243 points even faster than expected,
          with -242 points from daily closing high at 978 on 15JUL to intraday low of 736 on
         11SEP.  From touching this powerful support level, the market immediately surged
         25% (nearly 200 dollars) over just 5 sessions.

          Forecast: 

          In Report #43 on 01JUL called for "an important top and immediate reversal at 146
          with decline of 33% to 98 ...as the first leg in an 18-month consolidation"

          Outcome:

                    The market delivered an intraday high as expected at 147 on 11JUL, and promptly
                    collapsed by 33% to quickly achieve the 98 downside target on 15SEP. 

INTEREST RATES

DEPOSIT

Forecast: 

          In Report #40 on 01APR projected "an upsurge to around 98.50 in JUN"

Outcome:

          The timing window inverted to mark a low rather than high, with the market falling
          100 bp from 97.50 in APR to 96.50 in JUN.  It then recovered 200 bp to achive the
          main price objective of 98.50 in DEC.

BOND

Forecast: 

          In Report #40 on 01APR projected "further choppy gains over the next 6 months to
          reach a peak at 127-16 in SEP".  

Outcome:

          The market reached a high for USU8 at 125 on 16SEP  --  right on schedule but
          just shy of the preferred price target.  A collapse over the next month reached a low
          for USZ8 at 112 before soaring to end NOV exactly at the original target of 127-16.