F O R E C A S T S

PolarView

 

 

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The PolarView Monthly Analysis had a limited number of deliveries in its final year (ahead of a change to the new Quarterly series in 2012), but still managed to render prescient calls across the range of equity, currency, commodity, and interest rate markets covered  intermittently.

The examples below illustrate the accuracy on short- and medium-term projections for direction, relative magnitude+duration of movements, and absolute levels+dates for price/time junctures.  

They are not an exhaustive list of every forecast, expectation, or contingent scenario presented in the Reports, and some of those not included in this brief review were also very successful. But of course no one is perfect, and some forecasts and preferred scenarios did not materialise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EQUITIES
SPX

          

          Forecast: 

                    Report #65 on 11APR projected an "oscillation of +5% in APR from 1305 to 1365
                    and then -5% in MAY to 1300."

          Outcome:

                    The market delivered the oscillation precisely  --  with +5% up in APR finishing the month
                    at 1364, and then 5% down to 1298 on schedule between 03MAY-03JUN. 

 

 

CURRENCIES
EUR

          

          Forecast: 

                    Report #66 (final Monthly edition) projected a "brief upside retest of 1.45 and then
                    sharp reversal to 1.22 in 2011."

          Outcome:

                    The market popped up as expected from 1.41 to a high at 1.45 on 29AUG and then
                    delivered a 12% slide to the low thus far at 1.28 on 29DEC.  

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD

 

Forecast: 

          In Radio interview on 27AUG highlighted "confluence of resistance at 1930 with
          risk of immediate sharp collapse of several hundred dollars."

Outcome

          The market peaked the following week at 1920 on 06SEP and then collapsed as
          expected nearly $400 directly to a low at 1530 on 26SEP.

 

 

INTEREST RATES

BOND

   

Forecast: 

          Report #64 on 11FEB projected the 30-year futures to have "an immediate bounce
          from 117 to 124 in MAR and then stretch to 128."

Outcome

          The market rallied as expected directly to a high at 124 in MAR and then reached
          the second target at 128 in JUN.
  

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright 2011  Polar Pacific Pty Ltd

 

 

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