BOOK

P O L A R   P E R S P E C T I V E S

 

 

Polar Perspectives

Large-Scale Waves and Cycles:
Implications for 2006-2016 and Beyond

 

 

Special Edition

 


 
TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

INTRODUCTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PREFACE

Conception / Acknowledgements

 

 

 

OVERVIEW

Synopsis / Structure

 

 

 

METHODOLOGY

Symmetry / Style

 

 

 

 

 

Section I

EQUITIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 1

 

SPX

Waves / Cycles / Statistics

 

Chapter 2

 

DOW

Waves / Cycles

 

Chapter 3

 

NDX

Waves / Cross Rate

 

Chapter 4

 

NIKKEI

Waves / Correlations

 

Chapter 5

 

N. AMERICA

NYSE / RUT / TSX

 

Chapter 6

 

EUROPE

FTSE / CAC / DAX

 

Chapter 7

 

ASIA

STI / HSI / ASX

 

 

 

 

 

Section II

CURRENCIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 8

 

GBPUSD

Cycles / Waves

 

Chapter 9

 

EURUSD

Correlations / Waves

 

Chapter 10

 

USDJPY

Symmetry / Waves

 

Chapter 11

 

CROSSES

EURGBP / EURJPY

 

Chapter 12

 

AUDUSD

History / Waves

 

Chapter 13

 

GLOBAL

USDCAD / USDCHF / USDSGD

 

 

 

 

 

Section III

COMMODITIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 14

 

GOLD

History / Waves

 

Chapter 15

 

SILVER

History / Waves

 

Chapter 16

 

OIL

History / Waves

 

Chapter 17

 

CROSSES I

GOLD versus OIL

 

Chapter 18

 

CROSSES II

OIL in GBP and JPY

 

 

 

 

 

Section IV

INTEREST RATES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 19

 

BONDS

Curve Evolution / Waves / Correlations

 

Chapter 20

 

DEPOSITS

Correlations / Waves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Section V

PERSPECTIVE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 21

 

FRAMEWORK

Metastructure / Schematic / Tables

 

Chapter 22

 

PRINCIPLES

Globality / Impulses / Corrections

 

Chapter 23

 

CHRONOLOGY

Pre-Financial Era / Financial Era

 

Chapter 24

 

CYCLICITY

Financial Degrees / Non-Financial Degrees

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONCLUSION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix A

 

SYNTHESIS

Summary / Outlook

 

Appendix B

 

BACKGROUND

Performance / Profile

 

Appendix C

 

REFERENCES

Bibliography / Additional Reading

 

 

 


LIST OF CHARTS

Section I

EQUITIES

   

 

Scale               Range

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 1

Chart 1-1

SPX

SuperCycle Five  (1949 Base)

Annual Bars

log

1900-2020

 

Chart 1-2

SPX

SuperCycle Five  (1932 Base)

Annual Bars

log

1900-2020

 

Chart 1-3

SPX

Cycle III  (1949 Base)

Monthly Closes

log

1970-2020

 

Chart 1-4

SPX

Cycle V  (1932 Base)

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2020

 

Chart 1-5

SPX

Cycle V  (1949 Base)

Weekly Bars

log

1995-2015

 

Chart 1-6

OEX

Wave 1 of V

Weekly Bars

log

2000-2015

  Chart 1-7 SPX Wave 1 of V  (OEX format)

Weekly Bars

log   2000-2010

 

Chart 1-8

SPX

Years 5 and 7

Monthly Averages

linear

1796-2005

 

Chart 1-9

SPX

Raw Prices

Monthly Averages

linear

1796-2005

 

Chart 1-10

SPX

Log Prices

Monthly Averages

linear

1796-2005

 

Chart 1-11

SPX

Cumulative Returns

Monthly Averages

linear

1796-2005

 

Chart 1-12

SPX

Percentage Returns

Monthly Averages

linear

1796-2005

 

Chart 1-13

SPX

Returns by SC Period

Monthly Averages

linear

1796-2005

 

Chart 1-14

SPX

Returns by Sub-Period

Daily Averages

linear

1950-2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 2

Chart 2-1

DOW

SuperCycle Five

Monthly Closes

log

1900-2020

 

Chart 2-2

DOW

Wave 5

Weekly Bars

log

2000-2010

 

Chart 2-3

DOW

4-Year Cycle

Monthly Bars

log

1900-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 3

Chart 3-1

NDX

Complete History

Daily Closes

log

1980-2020

 

Chart 3-2

NDX

SuperCycle

Monthly Bars

log

1990-2020

 

Chart 3-3

NDX

Wave 1 of V

Weekly Bars

log

2003-2007

 

Chart 3-4

NDX

Wave 1 of V

Weekly Bars

linear

2003-2007

 

Chart 3-5

NDX

NDX/SPX Cross

Daily Closes

log

1985-2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 4

Chart 4-1

NIKKEI

SuperCycle

Annual Bars

log

1900-2020

 

Chart 4-2

NIKKEI

SuperCycle Interior

Monthly Bars

log

1960-2020

 

Chart 4-3

NIKKEI

Cycle V

Weekly Bars

log

1996-2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 5

Chart 5-1

AMERICA

NYSE SuperCycle

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2010

 

Chart 5-2

AMERICA

RUT Market Cap

Annual Closes

log

1975-2010

 

Chart 5-3

AMERICA

RUT Cycle V

Weekly Bars

linear

1996-2014

 

Chart 5-4

AMERICA

TSX Cycle V

Monthly Closes

log

1980-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 6

Chart 6-1

EUROPE

Raw Prices

Monthly Closes

linear

1985-2015

 

Chart 6-2

EUROPE

Indexed to DEC90

Monthly Closes

linear

1985-2015

 

Chart 6-3

EUROPE

Indexed to MAR03

Monthly Closes

linear

1985-2015

 

Chart 6-4

EUROPE

FTSE Cycle V

Weekly Bars

linear

1996-2010

 

Chart 6-5

EUROPE

CAC SuperCycle

Weekly Bars

linear

1990-2010

 

Chart 6-6

EUROPE

DAX/CAC Cross

Weekly Closes

linear

1990-2015

 

Chart 6-7

EUROPE

DAX/FTSE Cross

Weekly Closes

linear

1990-2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 7

Chart 7-1

ASIA

STI SuperCycles

Monthly Closes

log

1960-2020

 

Chart 7-2

ASIA

HSI SuperCycle Three

Monthly Bars

log

1950-2030

 

Chart 7-3

ASIA

ASX Grand SuperCycle

Annual Bars

log

1760-2040

 

Chart 7-4

ASIA

ASX Cycle V

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2030

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Section II

CURRENCIES

   

 

Scale                Range  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 8

Chart 8-1

GBPUSD

100-Month cycle

Monthly Closes

log

1900-2020

 

Chart 8-2

GBPUSD

Grand SuperCycle

Annual Closes

log

1660-2060

 

Chart 8-3

GBPUSD

Cycle IV

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2020

 

Chart 8-4

GBPUSD

Part C

Weekly Bars

log

2000-2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 9

Chart 9-1

EURUSD

EURGBP Correlation Periods

Daily Closes

log

1975-2015

 

Chart 9-2

EURUSD

SPXEUR Correlation Periods

Monthly Closes

log

1980-2010

 

Chart 9-3

EURUSD

Cycle IV

Monthly Closes

log

1975-2015

 

Chart 9-4

EURUSD

Part C of IV

Monthly Bars

log

2000-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 10

Chart 10-1

USDJPY

Grand SuperCycle

Annual Bars

log

1860-2050

 

Chart 10-2

USDJPY

SuperCycle Four

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2020

 

Chart 10-3

USDJPY

Alternative Labels

Monthly Closes

linear

1950-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 11

Chart 11-1

CROSSES

EURGBP Cycles

Monthly Closes

linear

1940-2060

 

Chart 11-2

CROSSES

EURJPY Cycles

Monthly Closes

log

1975-2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 12

Chart 12-1

AUDUSD

SuperCycle

Annual Bars

log

1800-2040

 

Chart 12-2

AUDUSD

Cycle IV

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2030

 

Chart 12-3

AUDUSD

Part (a) of  IV

Weekly Bars

log

2000-2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 13

Chart 13-1

GLOBAL

USDCAD SuperCycles

Monthly Closes

log

1900-2060

 

Chart 13-2

GLOBAL

USDCHF Cycle

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2050

 

Chart 13-3

GLOBAL

USDSGD  SuperCycles

Monthly Closes

log

1900-2060

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Section III

COMMODITIES

   

 

Scale                Range  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 14

Chart 14-1

GOLD

Grand SuperCycle  (in GBP)

Annual Averages

log

1450-2050

 

Chart 14-2

GOLD

SuperCycle One  (in GBP)

Mint Rates

linear

1450-1950

 

Chart 14-3

GOLD

Grand SuperCycle  (in USD)

Monthly Averages

log

1780-2060

 

Chart 14-4

GOLD

Fixed-Period Cycles

34-year Blocks

linear

1790-2030

 

Chart 14-5

GOLD

Cycle V  (Futures)

Monthly Closes

log

1980-2020

 

Chart 14-6

GOLD

Wave 1  (Futures)

Weekly Bars

log

1999-2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 15

Chart 15-1

SILVER

Demand, Supply, Deficits

Annual Flows

linear

1995-2005

 

Chart 15-2

SILVER

Grand SuperCycle

Annual Bars

log

1780-2060

 

Chart 15-3

SILVER

SuperCycle Three

Monthly Bars

log

1970-2020

 

Chart 15-4

SILVER

Gold/Silver Cross

Annual Closes

log

1780-2060

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 16

Chart 16-1

OIL

Grand SuperCycle

Annual Averages

log

1780-2060

 

Chart 16-2

OIL

SuperCycles

Monthly Averages

log

1840-2060

 

Chart 16-3

OIL

Alternative SuperCycles

Monthly Averages

log

1840-2060

 

Chart 16-4

OIL

Cycle III

Monthly Closes

log

1900-2060

 

Chart 16-5

OIL

Wave 5  (Futures)

Monthly Bars

log

1985-2015

 

Chart 16-6

OIL

Part (iii)  (Futures)

Weekly Bars

log

1999-2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 17

Chart 17-1

GOLD-OIL

Indexed to 1892

Monthly Averages

log

1880-2020

 

Chart 17-2

GOLD-OIL

Indexed to 1970

Monthly Averages

log

1960-2020

 

Chart 17-3

GOLD-OIL

Price Movements

Monthly Averages

log

1840-2040

 

Chart 17-4

GOLD-OIL

Annotated Movements

Monthly Averages

log

1840-2040

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 18

Chart 18-1

CROSSES

OIL Indexed to 1900

Monthly Closes

log

1880-2040

 

Chart 18-2

CROSSES

OIL Indexed to 1960

Monthly Closes

log

1960-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Section IV

INTEREST RATES

   

 

Scale                Range  

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 19

Chart 19-1

BONDS

10-year US Treasury Yield

Annual Bars

linear

1800-2080

 

Chart 19-2

BONDS

US Treasury Yields

Monthly Closes

linear

1950-2010

 

Chart 19-3

BONDS

US Treasury Yield Curves

Monthly Closes

linear

1955-2005

 

Chart 19-4

BONDS

10-year Yield vs Fed Funds

Weekly Closes

linear

1960-2010

 

Chart 19-5

BONDS

10-year - FF Curve Differential

Weekly Closes

linear

1960-2010

 

Chart 19-6

BONDS

30-year Yield vs Fed Funds

Weekly Closes

linear

1980-2010

 

Chart 19-7

BONDS

30-year US Treasury Yield

Weekly Bars

log

1994-2010

 

Chart 19-8

BONDS

Futures:  Un-adjusted

Monthly Bars

log

1975-2020

 

Chart 19-9

BONDS

Futures:  Back-adjusted

Monthly Bars

linear

1980-2020

 

Chart 19-10

BONDS

Part C of Two

Weekly Bars

linear

2000-2008

 

Chart 19-11

BONDS

10-year Yield vs SPX

Annual Averages

log

1800-2040

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 20

Chart 20-1

DEPOSITS

3-mo T-Bills vs Libor

Monthly Closes

linear

1986-2010

 

Chart 20-2

DEPOSITS

3-mo Curve Differentials

Monthly Closes

linear

1986-2010

 

Chart 20-3

DEPOSITS

ED Futures:  Predictive Errors

Quarterly Closes

linear

1986-2010

 

Chart 20-4

DEPOSITS

12-mo Errors: Gross + Net

Quarterly Closes

linear

1986-2010

 

Chart 20-5

DEPOSITS

ED Futures:  Un-adjusted

Monthly Bars

linear

1980-2010

 

Chart 20-6

DEPOSITS

ED Futures:  Back-adjusted

Monthly Bars

linear

1990-2030

 

Chart 20-7

DEPOSITS

SuperCycle Three

Weekly Bars

linear

2000-2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Section V

PERSPECTIVE

   

 

Scale                Range  

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter 23

Chart 23-1

SPX

Grand SuperCycle [Five]

Annual Bars

log

1760-2040

 

 

 

 


LIST OF TABLES

 

  INTRODUCTION      
         
         

 

Table 0-1

 

Multiples and fractions of Phi

 

 

Table 0-2

 

Common retracement percentages

 

 

Table 0-3

 

Fibonacci and Lucas series

 

 

Table 0-4

 

Phi in Fibonacci and Lucas ratios

 

 

Table 0-5

 

Text colour scheme

 

 

Table 0-6

 

Chart colour scheme

 

         
         
Section I EQUITIES      
         
         

Chapter 1

Table 1-1

SPX

Grand SuperCycle [Five]

 

 

Table 1-2

SPX

SuperCycle Five Impulses  (1949 base)

 

 

Table 1-3

SPX

Cycle III Impulses  (1949 Base)

 

 

Table 1-4

SPX

Cycle III Interior Impulses

 

 

Table 1-5

SPX

Typical Recoveries

 

 

Table 1-6

SPX

Wave 1 of V Correction Symmetry

 

 

Table 1-7

SPX

Temporal Phi Series

 

 

Table 1-8

SPX

Typical Declines

 

 

Table 1-9

SPX

Recent Declines

 

 

Table 1-10

SPX

War Cycle

 

 

Table 1-11

SPX

Nested Cycles

 

 

Table 1-12

SPX

Average Returns by Year of Decade

 
         

Chapter 2

Table 2-1

DOW

SuperCycle Five

 

 

Table 2-2

DOW

Cycle V

 
  Table 2-3 DOW Wave 5  

 

Table 2-4

DOW

Time Symmetry

 

 

Table 2-5

DOW

4-Year Cycle: Summary

 

 

Table 2-6

DOW

4-Year Cycle: Variability

 

 

Table 2-7

DOW

Films:  Frequency of Year for Best of Genre

 
         

Chapter 3

Table 3-1

NDX

NDX/SPX Cross Movements

 
         

Chapter 4

Table 4-1

NIKKEI

SuperCycle

 

 

Table 4-2

NIKKEI

Cycle IV

 

 

Table 4-3